Election Day is here. Long live election day. Polls close today, but it will take several days for the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk to process all of the ballots received. Typically the results that come out on election night reflect the vote-by-mail, early vote and dropped-off ballots that came in before election day. Get ready for some possible whiplash as to who ultimately comes out on top.
There’s a glut of voter guides, but The LA Reporter is providing a different kind of guide — one that focuses more on how to check the results, since knowing what is about to or has already happened, even if we don’t have much control over it now, has its appeal. The results have implications for what’s going to happen in LA politics and policy. And I know you’re excited or nervous about all that if you’re subscribed to a newsletter like The LA Reporter.
Still, here is a voting tip before we get to the rest. If you know where your local LA city library is, you know where you can drop off your ballot! Each LA public library has a ballot drop-off box. And of course, the library has a pretty great overview of everything else you know know for voting.
And now… on to The LA Reporter’s election guide for monitoring the situation, beyond voting:
Results come in after 8 p.m., usually as soon as a half an hour after! For local races, the LA County Registrar/Recorder’s election results page is good enough. But when checking statewide races, or races in districts with footprints spanning beyond Los Angeles county, you’ll need to go to the Secretary of State’s website to check results. And just a warning that the results typically trickle in slowly after a big dump at the start, sometimes into the wee hours of the next day.
It will take about a week or more, as the LA County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk processes ballots from election day and receive mail-in ballots, before we get a full picture of the results. Often we get dramatic switch-ups from the results on election night. The Clerk’s elections office will be checking the mail every day, for the next seven days, for vote-by-mail ballots with postmarks by June 2. Due to concerns that ballots might not immediately receive postmarks, officials have been recommending that people go get their ballots hand-stamped with postmarks by post office workers.
To get a sense of how many ballots have come in, there is the tracker from PDI, which primarily provides voter data to campaigns. PDI’s owner Paul Mitchell just reported a huge dump of ballots on Monday, June 1.
Another avenue for understanding these elections is the LA City Ethics Commission. You can always check some of the voter guides out there and the campaign messaging being put out, but a major part of the election story, and what’s going on with candidates, is in the campaign disclosures made to the City Ethics Commission, and don’t just look at who gives, but also how campaigns spend their money. You can find that data here.
And here’s the over-arching note for those looking at the results for the LA city races, which this guide focuses on. Contrary to what is being said about the “top-two” nature of the LA’s mayor’s race, LA city races do NOT go automatically to a runoff in November. No, no, no. If a candidate gets more than half of the votes, they win outright and there will NOT be a runoff. The LA mayor’s race is one in which the incumbent, Mayor Karen Bass, is in danger of being forced into a runoff, with polling consistently showing she’ll have to keep campaigning into November get another term. But that’s not necessarily the case, and the City Controller’s race is a good example. It’s instant electoral death for whoever loses the Controller’s race in this June 2 election, because there are only two candidates and unless they split the vote evenly, you can expect an outright winner for Controller.
Here’s a breakdown of the LA city races, including what races we’re expecting to go to a runoff, or at least will have a chance of it, in November, and what will result in a winner this election:
The mayor’s race is the major one where candidates are jostling to get into the “top two” advancing to a November runoff. Not only are there 14 candidates, LA Mayor Karen Bass is an incumbent candidate who is not going to coast to victory, based on consistent polling numbers that show her far below 50% plus one vote. The mayor is expected to be in the top two, though, so the nail-biter we’re expecting is around whether Bass will be facing off against LA City Council member Nithya Raman or former reality TV villain turned Palisades fire victim Spencer Pratt.
In the mayor’s race, there are a couple more challengers who are polling much lower but have nevertheless made their presence known (for better or worse depending on which candidates you favor): Housing advocate Rae Huang carries the torch for folks who want a leftist candidate to vote for, and she has been running a vigorous campaign despite limited funds. And nonprofit entrepreneur Adam Miller has employed his substantial personal funds to offer a more moderate platform similar to that of Bass.
Meanwhile, get ready for a winner to emerge in the June 2 election in the City Controller’s race, as well as a couple races for LA City Council seats. These races have only two candidates, so we’re bound to get a winner who pulls more than half the votes, simply due to math.
The headlining two-person race is the City Controller’s. The very popular City Controller Kenneth Mejia is facing off against a Democratic Party backed challenger, Zach Sokoloff, who’s campaign is using $1 million of its own money to boost his profile to voters. But Sokoloff’s own efforts pale in comparison to the additional $7.5 million that is being spent by an independent expenditure committee funded by his mother Sheryl Sokoloff to send out attack ads on Mejia. Thanks to the IE, the Controller’s race has emerged as one of the most expensive race in these elections. Even though the electorate voting of a City Controller is just as large as the mayor’s, the office has little direct authority over city policies. But the office’s ability to shine a light on problems, especially around financial matters, is a beloved one for Angelenos. The office’s role investigating waste, fraud and abuse, as well as providing transparency on city spending, has long been sleeper issue for many, and it’s emerged in a recent poll as one that is top of mind for many.
There’s another major two-person match-up in the Westside’s 11th Council District, and that’s between incumbent Traci Park, who makes up a part of the conservative wing of the City Council, and progressive challenger and civil rights attorney Faizah Malik. In a sleepier match-up in the South Bay, Council member Tim McOsker seat looks to be safe as he faces a challenge from community organizer Jordan Rivers in the the 15th District.
Meanwhile, we’ll get to see whether we’re getting a new council member now, or in November, in races for the west San Fernando Valley council seat of Bob Blumenfield and South LA council seat of Curren Price, but will we know by this election. There are six people running to represent South LA’s 9th District, and three in the race for the Valley seat in the 3rd District.
Another thing to check for is if incumbents can comfortably hold onto their seats, or if they’ll be forced into a runoff, or even ousted entirely. Listed below are seats where office holders are seeking re-election but face several challengers, or have a weak hold on their seat. There is even a chance that some might get shut out of the runoff entirely or that someone wins outright, with 50% plus one vote:
In the City Attorney’s race, Hydee Feldstein Soto faces challenges from the left in deputy attorney general Marissa Roy and human rights Aida Ashouri. Although an incumbent, Feldstein Soto has lost favor from powerful establishment supporters, including the Los Angeles Police Protective League, the police officers’ union that operates an influential independent expenditure arm, so she actually also faces a tough challenge from those within her own political lane in deputy district attorney John McKinney.
In the 1st District City Council race on the eastside Eunisses Hernandez, who is part of the council’s progressive bloc, is fending off four challengers — small business owner Sylvia Robledo, housing advocate Raul Claros, youth empowerment director Maria Lou Colanche, and entrepreneur/community advocate Nelson Grande.
In the 13th District Council race, which includes Hollywood, progressive council member Hugo Soto-Martinez is being met with three challengers, housing advocate/mom Dylan Kendall, urban community planner Rich Sarian and neighborhood council member Colter Carlisle.
In the 5th District City Council race on the westside, Katy Yaroslavsky, who tends to take up a moderate role on the City Council, faces challenges from tenants’ rights attorney Henry Mantel and small business accountant Morgan Oyler.
And finally, Monica Rodriguez, who represents CD 7, is running unopposed. She is spending her free time showing up for Mayor Karen Bass’s bid for re-election.
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